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February 09, 2021, New York, USA – The global pork meat market is expected to witness tremendous growth during the 2021-2028 periods, thanks to rising demand for pork meat in countries like China, which increased its pork import by 62% across all meat categories in 2019. Moreover, the rising production capacities from countries like Canada, Argentina, the European Union, Thailand, and United States will likely meet the growing demand from Asia, with poultry meat prices rising by 5.6% during 2019, as compared to in 2018. The frozen pork category witnessed the most promising growth during this year, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nation. Apart from pork, the global meat exports increase to 36 Mt in 2019, rising by 4% from the previous year.
The rising production capacities will remain a major positive for global growth of the pork meat market, as ASF (African swine fever)-related culling has decreased production in Asia. The rising costs of feed remain a concern for meat producers globally. However, the Food and Agricultural Organization estimates that the pork meat prices will start to decrease gradually as productivity growth is likely to set in. The African swine fever resulted in a decline in meat demand in several countries in 2019, however, the FAO estimates that per capita consumption will balance itself out as demand for quality pork meat products is expected to increase in high-income countries.
Rising Consumption of Meat and Quality Products to Drive Growth
According to the FAO, the per capita consumption of meat is expected to increase by 12% by 2029 globally. This includes several challenges and opportunities for players in the global pork meat market, as the rising demand is expected to remain highly complex in its nature. For example, the FAO estimates that over the medium term, the growth rates will decrease in response to slower income growth in several regions. For example, changing dietary preferences in high-income regions, growing saturation of demand will lead to a decline initially. However, thanks to rising demand for quality products, the global per capita consumption of meat will increase to 34.9 kg by 2029. In the long term, the rising meat supply will likely create more opportunities for growth as estimated meat supply reaches 40 Mt by 2029. The rising investment in pork meat production in EU, and United States will encourage strong growth for the global pork meat market, with increased productivity, higher quality products, and a strong demand for pork products in Asia, and low-income countries. The ASF outbreaks may remain a restraint to growth initially. However, the promising rise in demand from low-income countries, and lack of self-sufficiency to meet demand will promise more opportunities for global producers.
Lower Feed Costs in the Short-Run to Provide A Major Impetus for Growth
Thanks to challenges like the ASF, the feed costs for meat production have gone down considerably. FAO estimates that increased meat demand and favorable meat to feed price ratio will lead to higher profitability in meat production in the initial period. The ASF challenge has reduced meat production in developing countries, providing further momentum for pig meat production, due to the inherent benefits of being feed dependent product. Low production costs, rising demand for imports, and high feed necessity for increasing pork meat production will remain key drivers of growth in the global pork meat market in the short run. Moreover, the growth in natural varieties of meat in high-income countries will also spell robust growth for niche producers, as demand for quality products remains on the rise. The FAO estimates that a reduction in demand due to ASF outbreaks, reduction in pork supply due to weather conditions will even out post-2021. Soon after, the market will witness a stable, and gradual recovery in pork production of meat. Among its challenges, the covid-19 impact, the growing demand for natural foods, and consumer changes in dietary preferences will likely shift per capita consumption to high-quality pork products in the near future.
Strong Demand in Key Regions of North America to Drive Robust Growth
The strong demand for pork products in countries like the US will remain a strong driver for growth in the global pork meat market. Moreover, production facilities in high-income countries may also move to countries like Brazil, wherein natural grasslands, cheap availability of mass feeds, and supply of natural resources remain a strong driver of productivity gains. The FAO estimates that higher slaughter weights in a low feed cost environment in the United States, and strong demand in the EU, US for beef, and pork meat while increasing opportunities in imports will remain a strong driver for growth in the global pork meat market. The players in the pork meat market will also need to keep an eye on free trade agreements in continents like Africa, wherein new trade agreements are expected to allow duty-free imports of over 90% of goods among 28 countries in the near future.
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